Why This Clock Exists

Big Short Clock translates a market thesis into a public checklist. The point is not to predict a crash date. The point is to show which assumptions are being confirmed, and which assumptions would falsify the story.

How The Score Is Built

Each indicator is mapped onto a historical percentile from 0 to 100. When higher values imply more fragility, the percentile becomes the risk score. When lower values imply more fragility, the score is inverted.

Category scores are weighted averages of fresh indicators. Missing or stale readings are excluded and lower confidence. The final composite score is mapped from 00:00 to 23:59.

What The Clock Tries To Capture

The framework watches rates, liquidity, credit, labor, market stress, and AI-capex-sensitive narrative pressure. It is designed to surface when an expensive equity story is still being supported by the real economy and credit markets, and when that support starts to erode.

Falsifiable Triggers

These are the kinds of moves that matter more than broad opinions about valuation.

• AI capex language shifts from capacity shortage to utilization optimization.
• Credit spreads widen while equities stop rewarding good news.
• Real yields rise but earnings revisions stop offsetting the higher discount rate.
• Supplier pricing, financing, or SEC capex disclosures show spending intensity rolling over.

Boundary

This site is a financial research publication. It is not investment advice, not a trade signal, and not a personalized prediction engine.